WILL HE OR WON'T HE ???

Is an '08 run the next step for Al Gore?

By Fredreka Schouten, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — Former Vice President Al Gore's win of the Nobel Peace Prize for his crusade against global warming set off intense speculation Friday that he might jump into the 2008 presidential contest.
Democratic activists, including some of his most trusted advisers, say that is unlikely —given the already crowded field of candidates and his commitment to focus his efforts on climate change.

"I don't think that this great honor will change that calculation," said Michael Feldman, who was a senior White House adviser to Gore. "Frankly, I don't think he's given politics a lot of thought lately."

Gore himself has sought to tamp down rumors in recent weeks, saying that he has no plans to seek the presidency. In a statement issued shortly after the prize was announced, Gore said: "The climate crisis is not a political issue."

At a brief news conference Friday afternoon, Gore did not discuss his political plans or take questions. "I will be doing everything I can to best use the honor and recognition" to increase awareness of global warming's perils, he said.

Donna Brazile, who managed Gore's 2000 presidential campaign, said she would enthusiastically support his return to politics, "but he cooled my jets months ago."

"He's made the decision at this point," she said. "I don't foresee that this will in any way get Al Gore back on the campaign trail."

That hasn't stopped people from trying. "I've called Al Gore and urged him to run for president so many times," former President Carter told NBC's Today show. "He finally told me the last time, 'President Carter, please do not call me.' "

Gore also has been the target of an intense, Internet-driven effort to draft him. It included a full-page ad Wednesday in The New York Times, urging him to join the race.

Monica Friedlander, a public relations executive in Oakland, who is one of the Draft Gore organizers, said the Nobel win is further proof of his job qualifications.

At midday Friday, the group's online petition had garnered more than 177,000 signatures — up by more than 10,000 from a day earlier, she said.

Gore's supporters "realize that the odds are that he will not" run, she said. "But we have to demonstrate to him the kind of support he enjoys and create the army of volunteers he would have if he decided on a last-minute entry."

A last-minute entry into next year's contest would leave Gore far behind several Democratic candidates in the race for campaign cash. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who leads the field in national polls, and Barack Obama each have raised about $80 million this year.

Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a political analyst at the University of Southern California, said Gore likely could raise a considerable amount of money quickly, "but the reality is that most Democrats are happy with the field as it is."

In a Gallup Poll conducted before the Nobel Prize announcement, Clinton had an 84% favorable and 11% unfavorable rating among Democrats, according to Frank Newport, the poll's editor-in-chief. By comparison, Gore received 73% favorable and 20% unfavorable ratings.

In addition, when pollsters included Gore in a list of potential nominees, 10% of Democrats picked Gore as their first choice; 43% picked Clinton.

"We just don't see in the data any evidence that Gore would transform the race overnight should he jump in," Newport said.

Gore has not ruled out endorsing a candidate — as he did in the 2004 race when he backed former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, who lost his party's nomination to Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry.

Although Dean lost, Brazile said Gore's endorsement helped demonstrate the Dean was a credible candidate. In 2008, the former vice president's backing "will carry enormous weight," she said.

Bebitch said Gore's support probably would matter most to candidates who lag behind Clinton and Obama in fundraising and the polls, such as former North Carolina senator John Edwards and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.

Gore would have the ability to tap big donors on their behalf and generate buzz among the legions of environmental activists who support him, Bebitch said. "He's got a golden Rolodex from years and years in politics and the White House," she said.

Edwards was the first presidential candidate to release a statement congratulating Gore. An email from his campaign was sent at 5:18 a.m. — only minutes after the Nobel group announced the prize in Oslo.

Other candidates also praised the selection. Clinton said Gore's "dedication and tireless work have been instrumental in raising international awareness about global warming."

Obama, who has sought to distinguish himself from the Democratic field by emphasizing his opposition to the war in Iraq, said that Gore's fight against global warming — along with "his early and vocal opposition" to the war — has helped to advance world peace.

At the White House, spokesman Tony Fratto said President Bush is "happy for Vice President Gore" and "for the International Panel on Climate Change scientists who also shared the peace prize."

Contributing: The Associated Press