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Tuesday, February 12, 2008

EUR ELECTION ANALYSIS: Young and Black Boost Obama; White Females Boost Clinton.



Illinois Senator Barack Obama appears to have overtaken New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in the all important delegate count as a result of his Democratic primary and caucus victory this weekend.

After caucus wins in Nebraska and Washington and Maine as well as a primary win in Louisiana, Obama is now the official front runner. After last week's "Super Tuesday" Clinton led Obama with roughly 90 more delegates.

However, Saturday's victories now give Obama roughly a 70 delegate lead over Clinton. Thus, the race for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination is now virtually guaranteed to extend into March and possibly into April.

Meanwhile, as has been true throughout much of the primary season Clinton continues to get her most solid support from white women averaging around 60 percent of their vote. For Obama, the most solid support is coming from African Americans who are casting roughly 80 percent of their ballots for a Black man given the first realistic chance in history of winning the Democratic Party's presidential nomination.

If current patterns hold true in March and April, Obama could coast into the nomination. In order to stop a possible Clinton surge, Obama must cut into her support among white females and Hispanics. He must do this without alienating Blacks and young people (both Black and white) who have been voting heavily in his favor. Another surprise in the race has been the fact that Obama also appears to be leading Clinton among white men.

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