By: Sherrel Wheeler Stewart and Jackie Jones, BlackAmericaWeb.com
Rep. Joe Donnelly of Granger, Indiana is one of four Democratic representatives from the state undecided in their roles as superdelegates.
“I am going to wait and let my district vote before making an endorsement,” Donnelly told BlackAmericaWeb.com. “I am one of them.”
Voters in Indiana go to the polls on May 6 for the state's presidential primary.
Donnelly said he will make his endorsement based on who he thinks will make the “best president for this country and who is supported by a majority of voters in my district.”
The congressman said he has been contacted by both the campaigns of both Democratic hopefuls, Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton. “I’ve explained to them my position, and both camps have been understanding,” Donnelly said.
He is currently facing a re-election bid to represent Indiana’s Second district.
In November, Donnelly said, the Democrats will carry Indiana. “The important issues in Indiana are those that relate to working families,” he said. “Both candidates are speaking to those issues.”
Donnelly said his endorsement decision will not be influenced by the outcome of Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary.
Just as there are undecided superdelegates in states such as Indiana, there are also a considerable number of undecided voters, some polls show.
A Times/Bloomberg poll conducted in Indiana April 10-14 showed that 19 percent of the likely Democratic voters in that state are undecided. That same poll showed Obama leading in that state with 35 percent of the vote. Clinton polled at 30 percent.
In North Carolina, a state where voters also go to the polls May 6, a Times/Bloomberg poll there also showed a double-digit percentage of undecided voters. Obama leads in that state with 47 percent, and Clinton follows with 34 percent, but 17 percent of the likely Democratic voters still were undecided in the poll conducted April 10-14.
But observers say the most critical votes among the undecided ultimately may come from Democratic superdelegates like Donnelly, who are hedging their bets on the march to the nomination.
The approximately 795 superdelegates -- party leaders and elected official delegates -- constitute about a fifth of all delegates who vote for a nominee at the convention. They are unpledged delegates who are free to support whomever they choose. According to Politico.com, Clinton leads Obama in superdelegates, 254-233, but 246 are still undecided. The total does not include superdelegates who committed to other Democratic candidates who have dropped out of the race, including former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, whose endorsement is actively being sought by the remaining candidates.
“They are very wary about who they’re going to vote for and will want to see what happens," says Dr. Ron Walters, director of the African-American Leadership Center and professor of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland College Park, said of the undecided superdelegates. "They don’t want to be caught on the wrong side of the fence. Some have made up their minds and are part of a strategy. These are the Obama people. They’re sort of trickling out in a way that creates momentum and feeling that not only closes the gap, but shows the momentum is clearly going toward him. There’s another group that wants to be on the winning side.”
Some superdelegates who are elected officials will ultimately follow the will of their constituents, but are hedging their bets in case Clinton wins. They don’t want to declare support for the wrong candidate and then have to try to make amends with the nominee -- and, possibly, the president -- when they need favors.
“They have brownie points,” Walters told BlackAmericaWeb.com. “If they want something from someone who is president, down the line, they can say ‘I came out for you.’”
“I can tell you right now the Clinton folks, they’ve got a marker on when somebody committed,” Democratic strategist Craig Kirby told BlackAmericaWeb.com. “There’s a difference between deciding in March ’08 and in May ’08. It’s the difference between being ambassador to England and ambassador to West Virginia. And I’ve got nothing against West Virginia.”
Even a high-profile personality like ex-candidate Edwards stands to gain from endorsing earlier rather than later.
“John Edwards could have come out much earlier,” Walters said. “By waiting, his potency loses its effectiveness in the campaign. It doesn’t take much courage to come out once this thing is decided.”
Before the Texas and Ohio primaries, Walters said, about 50 superdelegates were ready to cross the line en masse and announce their support for Obama.
“In Texas, [Clinton] was able to say to them, ‘Hold on, I’m not out of this thing,’” he said. “That sort of checkmated that move,” but Clinton is still seeing defections from her camp. Those 50 superdelegates, Walters said, may be down to as few as 30.
It is critical, he said, that the nomination be wrapped up well before the convention in August. A brokered convention would create the image that the Democratic Party is disorganized and allow the presumptive GOP nominee, John McCain, more time to campaign without particularly close scrutiny.
“To have a mess at the convention is to jeopardize the fall campaign. It should be wrapped up by late June or early July at the rules committee where they certify the delegates,” Walters said.
“The convention is the nominee’s convention, and it has to be done according to the nominee’s wishes,” Walters said. “It’s much easier to shape the convention with one party and set everything up according to the way the nominee wants to campaign.”
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